Calculation of the fair value of PVR Limited (NSE: PVR)
Does the May share price for PVR Limited (NSE:PVR) reflect what it is really worth? Today we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of the stock by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. Patterns like these may seem beyond a layman’s comprehension, but they’re pretty easy to follow.
Businesses can be valued in many ways, which is why we emphasize that a DCF is not perfect for all situations. If you still have burning questions about this type of assessment, take a look at Simply Wall St.’s analysis template.
Check out our latest analysis for PVR
What is the estimated valuation?
We will use a two-stage DCF model which, as the name suggests, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is usually a period of higher growth which stabilizes towards the terminal value, captured in the second period of “sustained growth”. To begin with, we need to obtain cash flow estimates for the next ten years. Wherever possible, we use analysts’ estimates, but where these are not available, we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the latest estimate or reported value. We assume that companies with decreasing free cash flow will slow their rate of contraction and companies with increasing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow during this period. We do this to reflect the fact that growth tends to slow more in early years than in later years.
Generally, we assume that a dollar today is worth more than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at an estimate of present value:
10-Year Free Cash Flow (FCF) Forecast
2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | |
Leveraged FCF (₹, million) | -₹2.10b | ₹5.93b | ₹6.13b | ₹11.9 billion | ₹12.9 billion | ₹13.8 billion | ₹14.8 billion | ₹15.8 billion | ₹16.9 billion | ₹18.0b |
Growth rate estimate Source | Analyst x16 | Analyst x16 | Analyst x16 | Analyst x1 | Analyst x1 | Is at 7.09% | Is 6.98% | Is at 6.9% | Is at 6.85% | Is at 6.82% |
Present value (₹, million) discounted at 14% | -1,800 ₹ | ₹4,500 | ₹4,100 | ₹7,000 | ₹6,600 | ₹6.2k | ₹5.8k | ₹5.4k | ₹5.0k | ₹4,700 |
(“East” = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
10-year discounted cash flow (PVCF) =₹47b
The second stage is also known as the terminal value, it is the cash flow of the business after the first stage. For a number of reasons, a very conservative growth rate is used which cannot exceed that of a country’s GDP growth. In this case, we used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (6.7%) to estimate future growth. Similar to the 10-year “growth” period, we discount future cash flows to present value, using a cost of equity of 14%.
Terminal value (TV)= FCF_{2031} × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = ₹18b × (1 + 6.7%) ÷ (14%–6.7%) = ₹252b
Present value of terminal value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)^{ten}= ₹252b÷ (1 + 14%)^{ten}=₹66b
The total value is the sum of the cash flows for the next ten years plus the present terminal value, which gives the total equity value, which in this case is ₹113 billion. The final step is to divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of ₹1.7,000, the company appears to be about fair value at an 8.6% discount to the current share price. Remember though that this is only a rough estimate, and like any complex formula – trash in, trash out.
Important assumptions
The above calculation is highly dependent on two assumptions. One is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. If you disagree with these results, try the math yourself and play around with the assumptions. The DCF also does not take into account the possible cyclicality of an industry or the future capital needs of a company, so it does not give a complete picture of a company’s potential performance. Since we consider PVR as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which takes debt into account. In this calculation, we used 14%, which is based on a leveraged beta of 1.188. Beta is a measure of a stock’s volatility relative to the market as a whole. We derive our beta from the average industry beta of broadly comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable company.
Next steps:
Although important, the DCF calculation is just one of many factors you need to assess for a business. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Instead, the best use of a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk-free rate changes sharply, output may be very different. For PVR, there are three relevant factors you should explore:
- Financial health: Does PVR have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors such as leverage and risk.
- Future earnings: How does PVR’s growth rate compare to its peers and the market in general? Dive deeper into the analyst consensus figure for the coming years by interacting with our free analyst growth forecast chart.
- Other high-quality alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high-quality actions to get an idea of what you might be missing!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Indian stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock, just search here.
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This Simply Wall St article is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks and does not take into account your objectives or financial situation. Our goal is to bring you targeted long-term analysis based on fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not take into account the latest announcements from price-sensitive companies or qualitative materials. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.
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